The Collapse of the 28-Article Peace Proposal for Ukraine: How Diplomatic Efforts Continue to Stumble

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.