Irish Unification Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."